EC-M-1.1 v1.4.2 Beta

Threat Multiplier TM

A 0–1 composite of land-use change, development pressure, and ecosystem rarity for a parcel.

Quantifies the rate at which a parcel is at risk of being lost or degraded over the next decade, normalised against ecosystem replaceability. The denominator behind every Earth Credit issuance and the basis for parametric insurance triggers.

Twelve-month sample series

A representative parcel under EC-M-1.1, July 2025 through June 2026. The line is the published value at each monthly vintage; the band is the 95% confidence interval. Past vintages are immutable — this same chart, queried in 2040, returns the same values.

Threat Multiplier (TM) — sample monthly series

parcel us-vt-orange-a3f2 · methodology EC-M-1.1 · v1.4.2 · illustrative, not for citation

Sample · illustrative

Sample observation

A complete response object for this signal at a sample location and as-of date. Every field below appears on every observation; signal-specific structure lives under components.

200 OK · application/json GET /v1/signals/threat-multiplier

{
  "signal_id": "threat-multiplier",
  "version": "1.4.2",
  "methodology_version": "EC-M-1.1",
  "as_of": "2026-04-30",
  "vintage_pinned": true,
  "value": 0.4127,
  "components": {
    "land_use_change": 0.31,
    "development": 0.48,
    "rarity": 0.45
  },
  "horizon_years": 10,
  "lineage": {
    "inputs_count": 8,
    "computation_graph": "https://api.earth-signals.com/v1/signals/threat-multiplier/lineage/0xa3f2..."
  }
}

How to query

The signal is queried at the canonical /v1/signals/{id} endpoint. Required parameters are a location and an as-of date. The same query replayed in 2040 returns the same value.

curl https://api.earth-signals.com/v1/signals/threat-multiplier \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer es_preview_..." \
  -d "lat=44.4654" \
  -d "lng=-72.6874" \
  -d "as_of=2026-04-30"

Endpoint and tokens shown for spec illustration. The Earth Signals API is in private beta with named design partners; the underlying Earth API and Calculator API are live.

The full parameter table — point query, parcel id, polygon aggregation, methodology pinning — is in the API reference.

Audiences that lean on this signal

Markets & trading Funds, market makers, structured-product desks. Risk & insurance Reinsurers, parametric-product desks, risk modellers. Corporate disclosure & risk Sustainability, finance, and risk teams at large corporates. Platforms & SaaS partners GIS platforms, ESG software, supply-chain tools, restoration registries. Press & public discourse Investigative reporting, science journalism, civic discourse.

Citation

Landseed PBC. Threat Multiplier (TM), version 1.4.2, methodology EC-M-1.1. Earth Signals canonical signal layer. DOI forthcoming.

Cite the catalog id, the signal version, the methodology version, and the as-of date. Together these define a reproducible observation forever — independent of methodology revisions.